Booster doses in Israel working
By - fullyfranked
I think it’s good to see that all the panic about waning immunity seems to be over blown. Double dose doing an amazing job on sever cases and death. Completely in line with what we would expect. Not to say there isn’t waning just that you don’t hit 3-6 months and lose all protection as some have been peddling on here.
Solid case for a booster but that’s not surprising.
Curious what caused dip in infections for boosters and double doses. I was almost hopeful on first glance that booster would further significantly reduce chance of being infected. But as the drop largely correlates to double dosed don’t think you can make that conclusion from this graph.
Yes, it's weird how that decoupling of vaxxed/unvaxxed cases happens in mid-August. Makes you wonder if the problem wasn't so much waning immunity as not-yet-fully-developed immunity. We've seen it posited that immune strength grows for some time with the adenovirus-vector vaccines, could the same thing actually be happening with Pfizer?
Haven’t followed Israel enough so unclear if there were restriction changes or similar around that time.
>Not to say there isn’t waning just that you don’t hit 3-6 months and lose all protection as some have been peddling on here.
I don't think that's what anyone's been peddling. The issue that people are peddling is that the reduction in infection rate may diminish. And if more people can get infected that pushes the r-eff up which keeps the virus around for longer. Which gives the chance that it mutates again.
Even with the waning vaccine you're unlikely to die. But personal death isn't the only concern when dealing with a pandemic. We want to protect those who can't get vaccinated which the reduced infection prevention doesn't assist us with. And we want to make sure we don't have the virus jump the vaccination lines via mutations. Which the more times it spreads the more times you give it the chance to mutate.
The other problem with these vaccines is that put a strong evolutionary selection pressure against the strains we have and towards strains that are less effected by the vaccine. These vaccines are a medical marvel, but they're a prototype
Except that no such variants have yet arisen, and it's difficult for them to do so because the vaccines target the spike protein that allows them to replicate. There is evolutionary pressure toward greater infectivity, such that they can 'jump' immune individuals and still find new hosts, but that arises with natural immunity too.
Delta becoming prominent was the work of vaccines. Delta existed more than 12 months ago, it needed it's less fit competition to be reduced before it could become dominant.
That is a very strange argument to make. It became dominant irrespective of vaccines in every region, per gisaid - [https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/](https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/) . It was simply more fit, period. I think I see what you're trying to say, in that widespread infection by other variants would impede it getting a foothold initially, as in South America, but that could only ever delay the inevitable triumph of delta. Vaccinations, though, play the same role as widespread non-delta infections - they help impede its growth, they don't aid it!
I believe you fail to understand natural immune reponse is NOT narrowband single epitope "vaccine" induced repsonse.
Regarding vaccine aiding delta growth, Israel and the UK would like a chat.
The data is in.
You fail to understand that vaccines do not elicit a "narrow band" response, they are robustly polyclonal. The data from the UK and Israel is indeed in and demonstrates just how robust this is. You need to do your homework before sounding off about topics you know nothing about.
The study reveals that the mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine (Pfizer-BioNTech) induces both anti-RBD and anti-NTD antibodies; however, the majority of these antibodies are non-neutralizing in nature. Moreover, the study highlights the importance of NTD mutations in viral variants that can significantly abolish the virus-neutralizing ability of monoclonal antibodies.
6 months ago.
Data does not lie.
Misinterpreting, ignoring or otherwise stamping your feet, none of this will change the data.
Resume your gymnystics and cognitive fence sitting
>I don't think that's what anyone's been peddling.
Yep, the concern has always been that it wanes over time, not magically stops working when the clock strikes 6 months. Which is exactly what is happening and why boosters are needed. OP is inventing an argument so he can win it.
The gave boosters to double dosed people most at risk of getting an infection and of getting sick one they did, so that drop in double dose infections is likely caused by old/at risk moving out of double dose and into 'boosted' cohort, and those remaining be younger, healthier, and double dosed
Makes sense, what I read was that being double dosed at an older age lowered your risk by about 20-30 years. So still a sizeable risk for 70+ if there is a lot of infection around.
Exactly, and these charts probably remove a large proportion of 60+ from double dose cohort, hence the drop in infections there, and as the booster kicks then is a drop among them. Seems promising to my lay mind.
This is democracy in action.
Important to note that two dose without the booster also dropping. Boosters make it better but two doses are effective.
There seems to be a major drop in a lot of Northern Hemisphere countries indicating a climatic shift which is making it harder to spread, and much harder to spread with vaccines.
Yeah it seemed that after the reopening there was a spike in cases, and now that spike has reduced.
However the Australian panic merchants are still like “but but but the northern hemisphere is out o control and everyone’s dying!!!! Remain closed forever!!!!”
I love the people that bring up israel and the UK as proof that vaccines aren't working and in fact the vaccinated are dying more then the unvaccinated. Like we don't have the ability to check that.
I don't think a lot of those posters are commenting in good faith anyway, but they also frequently ignore Simpsons paradox and the ecological fallacy when bringing up the numbers.
>ignore Simpsons paradox and...
Yeah - I'm not sure many of them are data literate.
Or numerate to be honest.
Yes. I sat and listened to an anti vax person the other day. I wanted to hear what they had to say and what their arguments were. They said look at what is happening in Israel. So I did. The person was missing the facts and figures as presented here. It is blindingly obvious that the vaccines work. And also that boosters are needed.
> However the Australian panic merchants are still like “but but but the northern hemisphere is out o control and everyone’s dying!!!! Remain closed forever!!!!”
eh, that more a vocal portion of this sub... a lot of us want to open up vaccinated people once we hit 70%.
That is a misrepresentation.
Noone is saying remain closed forever.
I have been vocal about being patient and smart, let's use the advantages we have to avoid the situations happening in Europe.
Europe isn't a theoretical model we can see what is working and what isn't and ensure that we avoid the pitfalls and eat all the low hanging fruit.
Personally, it seems like the UK ripped the bandaid off too quickly.
In June (based on 7-day average)
* new case < 1500 a day
* hospitalisations \~ 100 a day
* deaths < 10 a day
They eased a lot of restrictions some of which are real head scratchers.
Now(based on 7-day average):
* new cases \~ 30,000 a day - they have been rising - but in the last week have dropped off
* hospitalisations \~ 1000 a day - still rising but lag new cases so hopefully will drop soon too
* deaths \~ 100 a day - still rising but lag new cases so hopefully will drop soon too
If things were stable then there could be a debate about whether its a path we want to go down, but with things rising and winter on its way it's a real eye opener for us to stop and think how can we avoid a similar situation.
I guess the possibility of having your organs reaped and needing double lung transplant is not something to panic about.
There is a reason why rolling lockdowns save lives. We should embrace the new normal and get those basements ready to live in as a permanent thing.
Yep, Israel, Netherlands, Norway, Iceland, UK, Portugal, Finland etc are all seeing cases reduce. Great news!
Iceland looks like it's going to eliminate it self, fully open with open borders. 28 cases today. Absolutely stunning drop.
I think at their peak they reintroduced mask's indoors, testing on entry & 300 capacity limit for indoor venues. So very minor restrictions and along with vaccines have seen cases plummet. I know there was a lot of news being posted when cases were surging, its a pity the media & talking heads don't do positive follow ups.
This is great news, make sure to shout it out to all so everyone goes and gets vaxxed.
I'd be doubtful of elimination.
It's likely just not possible with the r-eff even with vaccines at this point.
The key thing to note though is that you could have 20 cases that go undetected because the vaccine supresses enough that the people don't get symptomatic and never test positive.
And that is a great thing. It's just going to obfuscate the presence of the virus, because the virus isn't really being seen to do anything problematic.
In terms of the virus being fully eliminated it needs to repeatedly go through half lives. The shorter the time for a whole half life to occur. The faster it fades out, an r-eff of 0.5 would mean that the virus would halve every reproduction period. something like a 0.8 put it at every 3 reproduction periods 0.9 at 6.5
The reality is we aren't going to eliminate the virus anytime soon even if we had Icelands vaccination rate world wide.
The number of cases that are positive that exist and the time for them to halve down to zero would be extreme since we can't get the r-eff super low.
Which is why mutations become the concern, because while it may be put in it's death throws, if it takes years to burn out of society there's the chance that it mutates, or our immunity wanes, or we stop having the same level of coverage as before that results in it becoming an ongoing thing. Instead of something we are just waiting for it to die off like smallpox.
India will eliminate it, eventually.
Only 1/3 to go.
China thinks they can keep the great quarantine wall up for long enough for the rest of the world to be done with it.
Boom, no more Iceland. We have success.
There's been some research that double vaccination and having covid has a very strong immune response.
It makes sense that has efficacy is slightly lower over time, you have a spike in cases in the vaccinated which are largely unsevere and then over time you will see a natural reduction.
And we should have timely boosters so this won't be much of an issue for us in general. It will just run rampant in the the unvaccinated.
I think the seasonal effects mean that even though the vaccines wane after 6 months, there’s a strong argument we only need one booster per year (to be delivered before winter so May-ish), and a mandatory booster before overseas travel (if no shot in the past six months).
There’s a reason why the COVID outbreaks in Sydney and Melbourne both started around the same time of the year.
Zero boosters. You are still protected from severe ilness and death.
If covid19 remains for more than three years, then it will be an age based vaccine.
So when you turn 50 its a finger up the bum, shit in a bag, and get your corona vax.
The rest is gloom dooming and giving pfizers bottom line a boost.
It's because they only boosted old people, who were way more prone to breakthrough infection. The risk of breakthrough infection was never uniform across age groups.
The booster obviously works given you are topping up anti-bodies.
In general though, looking at Europe, feels like previous infection works even better, quite a few countries have flatlined since June and that's despite fairly moderate vaccination levels.
Once it's burnt through the vulnerable, it's burnt through to a large extent.
Is this graph showing absolute number of daily cases for each of the three groups? If so, I’m struggling to parse this into a clear understanding of the effect of boosters. Without showing the changing size of each cohort, or normalising vs the size of the cohort, these aren’t readily comparable in a “conditional” way. Coupled with that is an overall reduction in case numbers.
If this is absolute, and the boosted population is very small, this could be showing there’s no difference. If the boosted population is roughly equal to (or larger) than the fully vaccinated cohort, then this would be a strong indicator of the boosters working well.
Yeah, these data don't show what the OP wants them to show.
Do you have the original source for these graphs?
Looking at the bottom left, it's the Financial Times using Israeli Health Ministry data
Article here https://www.ft.com/content/cf83b3a1-fe06-4c9f-999c-7500090aee7c
Just get covid and dont worry about needing boosters every 5 months in perpetuity.Easy.
Immunity due to infection fades too, it fades slower than pfizer and probably slightly slower than Astra but it still needs boosting.
This analysis of Israeli MoH data suggests boosters may only be necessary in the elderly, and efficacy of >90% is maintained with 2 doses for under 60s:
This is excellent news for sure! Hopefully this puts others who are unsure at ease and ensure others that vaccination is the way to beat this. This is why a cautious easing is going to be better then open everything up
I definitely want my booster shots. I got my two Pfizer doses only 3 weeks apart. Now I wish I waited longer in between doses for better long term immunity.
Here's hoping it's not a booster but a 3 dose vaccine and this immunity won't wane as much with 2.
Whilst encouraging that there does seem to be some positive evidence for booster, it should also be noted the clear difference in the severe case and death lines for the "merely" doubled dosed and those with zero protection.
2 shots, 3 shots, just get it done.
This is good news
Israel vs the least vaccinated country in the world:
Obviously the vaccines are working...
Not sure if serious
YOU DON'T KNOW THAT. IT'S FAKE NEWS
*person who listens to Joe Rogan religiously*
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My prediction is we will see waves of COVID like what is happening in Israel no matter what level of vaccine coverage we achieve, for the foreseeable future. The vaccines aren’t perfect at preventing spread, so it will probably become like the flu in terms of being a seasonal thing. It’s not something to be afraid of if vaccinated as severe illness will be much less likely.
Question: Anyone know if they are doing booster shots in Singapore? They're having an outbreak right now even though their population is 80% vaccinated (of total population). Yesterday they had 837 cases.
that was part of the deal we made with them to trade some of theirs now for ours later when they do them.
We seem to still have stocks for boosters.
whats the vibe like? Are people chill that a high vax pop still = 100s of cases (and fuck all deaths)
Yes just started boosters for immunocompromised and above60s. Too early to see results yet.
Thanks for posting this. I am wondering what our government is doing about booster shots? I hope they have a plan and supply.
There is something odd in the first graph. I wonder if in "2 doses" group, they forgot to exclude those that received the booster. Also some sort of weird outlier for unvaccinated in beginning of September.
give the anti-vaxers doses to the actually vulnerable as boosters and end the madness. If they die who cares.
Anyone have any long term data on the safety profile or long-term effectiveness of boosters? Nah? I didn't think so.
Listen to Robert Malone the creator of mRNA vaccines. We are in some deep deep shit.
Doing some preliminary research on mRNA 20 years ago doesn't qualify Robert Malone to talk about the current state of vaccine research. If you want to follow a guru join a religion.
Why would safety of boosters be any different from the chemically identical vaccines? What reason is there to think that long term effects would be more serious than short term effects?